← Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
decks
11
(22.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
49
18-26-5
overall winrate
41.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.5%
avg ELO -3.3 per match
expected value
46.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1310
· median 1293
· range 1117–1543
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1183
Q3 1380
1543
36% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
27% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 39.3% | -6.9 |
| Fire Suited | 6.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 35.4% | -9.3 |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.5% | +3.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -3.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.1% | -13.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.2% | +7.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 63.9% | +7.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 30.3% | -11.3 |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +3.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Ciel | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.9% | -17.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.8% | -6.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Scatter Essence, Resolute Stand. Losers more often ran: Heavenly Guide, Dungeon Guide, Tariff Ring.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Scatter Essence
Winning decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Reclaim
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 2.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Ensnaring Fumes
Winning decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Heavenly Guide
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Dungeon Guide
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 3.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Tariff Ring
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Penumbral Waltz
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Slice and Dice
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 3.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Innervate Agility
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 73 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 53 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.71 | 5 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.57 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Winbless Lookout | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Diablerie | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mad Tea Party | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Shadow's Claw | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Zephyr | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadeblood Coating | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orchestrated Seizure | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Mantle | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Foreboding | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Curved Dagger | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dreamy Unicorn | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shifting Mirage | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dusksoul Stone | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devoted Martyr | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unrelenting Warden | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Malignant Athame | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sirocco Operative | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deadly Opportunist | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |